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Yukon Huang: Debunking Myths About China's Economy

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China’s rapid growth and transition towards a more market-oriented economic system have encouraged spectators to predict massive changes to the Chinese political and social system. However, while growth is slowing, the economy remains sound and the Chinese Communist Party emerged from the 19th Party Congress with its strongest leader in years. What makes experts forecast again and again that China is on the verge of collapse? Yukon Huang, former Country Director for China at the World Bank, cuts through the myths and joins us to discuss his new book, "Cracking the China Conundrum: Why Conventional Economic Wisdom is Wrong." His in-depth analysis explores the varied dynamics at play in China’s economic growth today and sheds light on why so many China watchers have gotten it wrong.
SPEAKER:
Yukon Huang
Senior Fellow, Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
MODERATOR:
N. Bruce Pickering
Vice President of Global Programs, Asia Society and Executive Director, Asia Society Northern California, Asia Society
For more information about this event please visit: www.worldaffairs.org/media-library/event/1782
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Website: www.worldaffairs.org

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Dec 1, 2017

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Comments 1 434
Daniel Lawson
Daniel Lawson 2 months ago
The problem is this is happening while population is decreasing at a rapid rate.
Shaikh Jinn
Shaikh Jinn 2 months ago
Mr Huang is spot on. I worked with high level Chinese officials for over 10 years. Too many Americans can't get over their jingoistic mantras. Chinese leaders public and especially private are at the top of their game. Smart, well educated, hard working and clever.
Oksendal5
Oksendal5 2 months ago
Should be titled making up new myths about the Chinese economy for propaganda elite capture for the benefit of the glorious PRC.
amit ydv
amit ydv 2 months ago
Bull shit! Rich country are corrupt on the top level and less corrupt on the lower level, poor country corrupt on the top level and lower level ..
Maria Garcia
Maria Garcia 2 months ago
Corruption in China is different because its the worst of all, not just that---its command, persecute, kill, steal with absolutely no shame, disregard universal rules of law, primitive savage beliefs, aggression, selling/human organs for millions, communist government, disregard human rights, totalitarian, dictatorship---THAT IS WHY CHINA'S ECONOMY IS PROGRESSIVE DESPITE OF CORRUPTION---CHINA'S CORRUPTION IS THE WORST OF MODERN TIMES---NO OTHER CORRUPT COUNTRIES IS ABOVE IT! This guy loves to see that a country so much beyond corrupt and evil is progressive and continue to thrive.
Bert Bril
Bert Bril 2 months ago
A pity he mentions climate change and pollution as a similar issue. But pollution is real, whereas climate change is not happening at all. Of course, the climate change industry generates new business where true nature preservation only costs money. But still.
David Rapalyea
David Rapalyea 2 months ago
Fianally Trump. Trump? I am a Trumpster and I know exactly why and how he won. First and foremost he drives exactly all the right people barking dog mad. That and one Supreme Court nomination was all I ever wanted. How? Because we do not have a parliamentary system. I have been pondering the parliamentary system my whole life. But in 2016 in we g** d**** needed a Trump.
David Rapalyea
David Rapalyea 2 months ago
Local corruption is not a good thing. In addition State Owned Enterprises do not produce a high level of return on investment. Where is that nifty replacement for the 737? And all the smart, big dumb, money notices Hong Kong. Real Estate? No one tells us how many empty cities are still unfilled. I think there is a reason for that. Xi is the Emperor. The party is the traditional bureaucracy. Everyone with a car is a Mandarin. Everyone else is expendable and is being expended at this very time. China will probably be fine.
David Rapalyea
David Rapalyea 2 months ago
The Trump administration understands all this stuff. For instance, USA is one of the lowest trade dependent nations on earth and even I know this. Besides, we now can take advantage of: Golden Age 2050 THE IRON LAW OF BAD DEMOGRAPHICS. 1) Only India and USA have adequate demographics for 2050. (see charts a-d below) USA is one of the few places that can incorporate immigration - if we are not swamped out first as was Rome. Further, we will not soon lose the higher education system where every genius wants to go. 2) China is a status quo power because of demographics and 800 million people who do not live in either a tier one or tier two city. (see chart d below) 3) USA now has more hydrocarbons than god. Both energy (natural gas) and industrial feed stocks (natural gas) are both plentiful and cheap. Natural gas is a byproduct of oil fracking and will continue to be flared until pipes are installed. Peter Ziehan on hydrocarbons and demographics (1 hr) ruvid.net/video/video-BHr999RGPQw.html a) Industrial world fertility rate bar graph (2.1 is replacement). familyinequality.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/globaltfrs.jpg b) Japan, China USA population pyramids static.businessinsider.com/image/53b2927e6bb3f7a659603d6d/image.jpg?_ga=2.184282478.936777095.1563812465-1560154508.1563812465 c) India population pyramid. www.populationpyramid.net/india/2017/ d) China population by city tier. (slow load?) sampi.co/chinas-city-tier-system/
Joe Fernandez
Joe Fernandez 3 months ago
The USSR was about centrally-planned longterm strategic thinking, broken up into five year plans. It collapsed and imploded after 70 years because that's not the way the universe works or Mother Nature behaves or how God thinks. Bejing's emphasis on harmony is utopian. Harmony can only come from disharmony. The only predictable property of the universe is chaos. Order can only come from chaos. Karmic forces exhaust themselves sooner or later. Karma results from not only our doing but what others do as well. If there's no karma after a certain age, it's simply because the peers are all dead, and the Gen Y and Gen Z leave us alone. America may be the only nation in the world that researches everything to death. They have a research study for every possible scenario, military and non-military. They prefer to cross the bridge when they come to it. When that day comes, they are ready. India works because it's in perpetual chaos. The universe cannot do a number on it because it's extremely difficult to grasp India. China, like the USSR, is predictable. Their fates are similar. Xijinping is not God. It's ethically and morally wrong to focus on materialism, greed, and a consumerist throwaway culture that wastes precious resources, damages the environment and does nothing for climate change. Man does not live by bread alone. Principles matter. The BRI, meant to recycle China's US$ holdings, may benefit the recipients but they cannot afford it. Pakistan, for example, is Taliban country. The BRI is not the way to tame Pakistan. Only dismemberment will demolish the Taliban once and for all and corner them in west Punjab for a nuclear assault to destroy the demons of mental illness plaguing the land.
Tony Malerba
Tony Malerba 3 months ago
It is very well known that the Chinese government spends millions trying to hide and downplay it's true power in the world in order to quietly fly under the radar to then pounce on the world and attempt to run it the Chinese way. When it comes to china DONT TRUST THEM!
huong tovan
huong tovan 3 months ago
they don't talk about Dark side which is the truth nature of CCP : concentration camps in Xinkiang, Tibet invasion and demographic landscape change, organs trades taken out from living people.
Lance McGuire
Lance McGuire 3 months ago
He said China has equality. Wow, how about the Uyghurs in concentration camps and having to go through re-education camps, because of their beards and religion.
idahormj66
idahormj66 3 months ago
not even going to watch this after checking the source, carnegie endowment. im heading back to the epoch times
Jacek Maui
Jacek Maui 4 months ago
... and then there is this: "Why China Will Not Become the Dominant Power in Asia" - ruvid.net/video/video-_AvNT3vyzr0.html
Septic Womb
Septic Womb 4 months ago
this guy talks as if he's certain he's right and what he's saying is obvious. i don't trust that.
ryan richards
ryan richards 4 months ago
He's off his medication.
Suresh Nair
Suresh Nair 4 months ago
- china is smart - - they are opening up the financial sector - only because most of their banks have high levels of non performing assets - - they want the bigger idiot to be stuck with the baby :)
Based in China
Based in China 4 months ago
central govt doesnt actually deal with any local problems, they just act like they deal with it. who went to jail for the expired vaccines? why is the pollution in Beijing still over 150 AQI in 2019?
Based in China
Based in China 4 months ago
chinese cities are dense as fuck this guy is a straight up liar
Based in China
Based in China 4 months ago
chinese wages have not soared 20% per year...
Based in China
Based in China 4 months ago
his view of China only really takes into account the big cities. the countryside is going to be an absolute disaster after another decade.
Firefly
Firefly 4 months ago
Based in China You don’t know the Beautiful Countryside movement that has been going on for some years to develop and restore and transform rural China?
Napoleon Busch
Napoleon Busch 4 months ago
Sounds like a GLOBALIST shill, not buying a word.
Peter Kimemiah
Peter Kimemiah 4 months ago
Very interesting thinking.........an alternate view, that is very plausible. Thanks, will get hold of your book..
cromagxx
cromagxx 4 months ago
..just doesn’t add up!!.. 👉🏻bedside stories aimed to sleep our minds and to make our eyes closed in broad daylight!!👈🏻🤨‼️
Frank Jin
Frank Jin 4 months ago
there's no myth or miracle : low - humanright advantage. Look at UAW, strike strike strike. Look at the environment activists, protest protest protest of course they want to move factories to China. China also levered the WTO rules : as a developing country China doesn't have to keep any obligation in terms of lowering tariff and barriers, while claiming Trump's trade war is "anti-free trade". The world will adapt Chinese modal sooner or later : let's just roll the fk back to 19th century. Stop all the bullshit of human rights and environment. And tariff the shit out of each other.
B005
B005 4 months ago
Mt. Huang. With all due respect, OMG! How much is the CCP paying you for this propaganda BS. I’ve been in China more days probably than you have over the past decade and I know China’s Communist Party BS propaganda when I hear it. OMG!!! With your career and positions held, how can you write and pontificate this obviously CCP propaganda BS. Yes sure everything is roses here in the land of OZ. What your saying is pure fantasy. You’re obviously a party member or playing up for the party by putting out such nonsense. I’m glad I didn’t waste the money on your book. It’s just the same crap I read here put out by the state controlled ministry of propaganda. OMG. Such BS. I couldn’t even watch this entire video. Everything China does is so great according to you. Everything they do is unbelievable. Forget history. Forget normal wisdom. Everything in the land of OZ is great. Housing never goes down. Stock market here never goes down. The Communist party are made up of geniuses. Corruption is good. The communist party can do no wrong. China is the best at everything. People; don’t buy into what this guy is selling. It’s not like this at all. He’s a communist party shill putting out the party’s propaganda. Just as all the media organizations they are buying up around the world for the purposes of putting out this crap. Don’t believe this nonsense. He’s been paid well by the party to put out this book to put their spin on what’s actually going on. The problems here run deep and is going to shake the global economy to its core when the S__it hits the fan. People and companies who invested in China are not being allowed to take their money out of this country because of the mess the party’s in with their Fx accounts. Simply put they’re upside down on dollars. So all these investors who sunk so much in will never get their money out. Too much to go into here but this guy like many others; trying to “calm the waters”. Don’t believe this propaganda. No rational unbiased educated individual would be saying this nonsense. With all due respect Mr. Huang, I don’t believe for a second you actually believe what your peddling. Nice try though. Nice payday I’m sure. The Carnegie isn’t getting an unbiased player with you. You know I’m right. Your take is so wrong it’s scary. SCARY!!! You know full well the mess they’re in.
Firefly
Firefly 4 months ago
Brian Kelly You don’t have any data, references and stats to back up any of your opinion. No part of your comment is informative, just propaganda bullshit
Renzo Toglia
Renzo Toglia 4 months ago
I don't like this guy. he is too slick!
Renzo Toglia
Renzo Toglia 4 months ago
He is knowledgeable and informative but an obvious apologizer for CCP, an evil and corrupt Kleptocracy that wants to dominate and oppress the world with their ideology. The CCP not China is evil. Make that distinction!
Chung Yen
Chung Yen 4 months ago
Move to China, China lover!! Spouting nonsense with generalities. Believer of cooked economic numbers out of CCP
SkylineToTheSeaAndMe
America invests almost 50% of it's total foreign investment into China alone. In addition to all the direct foreign investment into China (about 70% of which goes through Hong Kong), American companies invest $Trillions by giving China technology (both forced and unforced technology transfer); By establishing companies/joint ventures in China; By building and investing in infrastructure projects, and by many other means (such as buying $550 Billion a year in Chinese goods). There is no country in the world which receives more foreign investment, than China, and no country America invests more in. But let's talk about Apple for a second (because he said Apple has no foreign investment into China). Apple hires Foxconn to do most of their manufacturing. Foxconn is a Taiwanese company (Hon Hai Precision Industries LTD.) and runs massive factories in Guangdong Province primarily. But through it's contracts with Apple, Apple employs indirectly, hundreds of thousands of Chinese Citizens. This is massive investment by Apple, into China. Apple is only one company, of tens of thousands of American companies, that employ tens (if not hundreds) of millions of Chinese people, directly or indirectly. But the problem with China, IS the Communist Party (Government), and their corruption, secrecy, and criminality.
alnot01
alnot01 4 months ago
"China’s rapid growth and transition towards a more market-oriented economic system..." ME. This transition is now stalled. I also do not trust any data put out by any Chinese government body. "...have encouraged spectators to predict massive changes to the Chinese political and social system." ME. This prediction, which emerged as early as 1979-80, was sadly naive and mistaken. China's government has succumbed to the perennial seduction of the authoritarian. "However, while growth is slowing, the economy remains sound..." ME. China's real GDP is almost surely overstated by 10-1%. An economy built on an Everest of debt, and resulting in 10s of million of unsold condo apartments, is very far from sound. "...and the Chinese Communist Party emerged from the 19th Party Congress with its strongest leader in years." ME. The current Chinese leader is the most brutal, authoritarian and controlling one since Mao. But is that strength? Is that desirable? "What makes experts forecast again and again that China is on the verge of collapse?" ME. Because Chinese economic policy is fundamentally irrational. China's state owned banks are little better than a polite Ponzi scheme backed by the printing press. "...Yukon Huang sheds light on why so many China watchers have gotten it wrong." ME. The jury is still out. It ain't over till it's over. History is the final judge, and China's history is far from over. China's recent celebration of the 70th anniversary of the creation PRC reminded me of a Nuremberg rally.
Temujin
Temujin 4 months ago
This guy is so full of shit, it's beyond stupid. This guys is simply a lying piece of shit that got dumb Americans to allow Wall Street banks to fund Chinese development using stolen U.S. technology. Trump is right. China is shit.
Giggitee O'Yeah
Giggitee O'Yeah 4 months ago
AgitProp and EconoProp from China bought, endorsed, studied, published, printed and finall regurgitated by whichever "thinktank" benefited from Chinese largesse.
sam thai
sam thai 5 months ago
Hahahahaha....Yukon has been wrong about everything in just 2 years. The facts have been exposed about China. The have been declining since 2007 and Yukon have completely missed it, yet he lives there. It is sad to say that Yukon is a ccp hack.
NDT
NDT 5 months ago
This guy is Trojan Horse planted in US by the CCP (China Communist Party)
Born Blazed
Born Blazed 5 months ago
China has to import most of its food. its a paper dragon and very vulnerable. China is slowly destroying its own environment with pure greed so its chinas own fault. This guys hand movements in the video tells me there is something wrong with the old man.
Tom Watson
Tom Watson 5 months ago
Invest in China? Talk to the CEO'S who have. They found that once the chinese had a firm understanding of the business model they copied it and the American small businesses were sent packing. Do we trust them with our intellectual properties?
jtr789310
jtr789310 5 months ago
Yukon Huang a communist and is getting paid by the CCP
Eduard Esrever
Eduard Esrever 5 months ago
Must watch: Exiled Chinese Billionaire's Accusations of China. ruvid.net/video/video-4cwXifDaCjE.html
Firefly
Firefly 4 months ago
Eduard Esrever You believe this notorious corrupt criminal?
Dui Trieu
Dui Trieu 5 months ago
What is, is that no other country interview the English
Ms12345678ab
Ms12345678ab 5 months ago
This is a goddamn Chinese fucking lie and this white American turncoat motherfucker need to be hurt for doing what are you doing
El Sols
El Sols 5 months ago
His explanation of why China major cities are too small was completely bogus and non reasoning. He gave no justified examples of why or how making them bigger would result in any of the things he claimed it would, and simply stated that such would occur through the act of increasing population. This man is a moron.
El Sols
El Sols 5 months ago
I disagree with him on his statement that America is the economic world leader.
Michael Dempster
Michael Dempster 5 months ago
You can’t trust anything China says !
Alexander Gomez
Alexander Gomez 5 months ago
Total mouthpiece for the Chinese government. You don't see millions of new US millionaires prospering and buying shit in China. You find broke whites working at Walmart and on food stamps.
Jose Glenn
Jose Glenn 5 months ago
Hey guys He's an Expert...…………………...…….Baaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwwwww HA HA HA
Greg Deane
Greg Deane 5 months ago
I think Steve Bannon is a lot more credible than this mouthpiece for the CCCP.
Firefly
Firefly 4 months ago
You believe that white supremacist?!
Ralf Schmidt
Ralf Schmidt 5 months ago
at the same time I don't want to comment on Bannon and Trump ...
Ralf Schmidt
Ralf Schmidt 5 months ago
I don't know this guy and I listen to him the first time today. My question is why he should be a mouthpiece of the CCCP? He was raised and educated in the US! Just because he saying things that you don't like? I am living in China for 20 years now. I don't like the communist party at all, but most of the things that Mr. Huang is saying are right!
John Young
John Young 5 months ago
This guy was probably bought by China.
FulinYu
FulinYu 5 months ago
Kyle Bass calls China a paper tiger, he says their currency is worthless.
Jim Harvey
Jim Harvey 5 months ago
The hand gestures drove me crazier.
Tony
Tony 5 months ago
Sign language.
Jan Olsen
Jan Olsen 5 months ago
I hear Europeans saying it's hard to use our cultural glasses to describe the reality of China. Oh, yeah!? Take a look at how China is a crowd of Master/Slave people! Give them the world and they will treat us like the Japanese did, same type slave mentaility.
Stephen Cotton
Stephen Cotton 5 months ago
He is wrong that nobody writes about India having a property bubble... Plenty of people do... and just because India is more inflated doesn't mean China isn't. But what we need think about was what happened in Tokyo. A small 2 bedroom apartment in the center of Tokyo costing $1 million... and the average wage in Tokyo was $3000 per month - $36,000 per year. And the bubble burst and that apartment is now work $500,000 or even less in some cases. So what we need to look at is the average wage and the cost of an apartment as a multiple of the annual wage. This will tell you if it is over inflated. And it is... very much so.
Stephen Cotton
Stephen Cotton 5 months ago
China's innovation over the last 30 years has been through stealing IP from other countries... and this has only increased over time. And there is no sign of it changing. There is a website on the internet that lists IP addresses the attempt login to servers to scope for vunerablities and testing for a DOS attack etc. And many of those IP addresses are managed in South Korea & China... Why South Korea? Because there are companies there that don't track what IP they give to what customer - so it is anonymous internet. And it is widely understood, that China uses such services for a variety of things.
Stephen Cotton
Stephen Cotton 5 months ago
Note: Xi Jinping - used the issue of corruption to remove his political opposition. The corruption just moved from those who enriched themselves - and were his enemes - to his family and friends. It did not go away. It was the transfer of power. So I think those drivers will still exist in China.
ybet1000
ybet1000 4 months ago
Proof?
Stephen Cotton
Stephen Cotton 5 months ago
Isn't it too expensive to live in the very center of the large cities in China? I would think that only the very rich can live in the center of large cities in China - especially - Beijing & Shanghai
Robert Dug
Robert Dug 5 months ago
As an American I'm not against China but i am against the CCP and their agenda of global enslavement.
kelly j
kelly j 5 months ago
do the same kind of interview now in 2019.
pinch mesh
pinch mesh 5 months ago
We are winning the trade war with China. Tariffs are making up the differences, Companies in China are returning home, or are seeking another country; tariffs are working in several ways to help our economy, and we are developing new supply chains. For a deeper look from the source, go here: ruvid.net/video/video-qH5QzuzD01A.html
David Gillen
David Gillen 5 months ago
This guy's as phony as a $3 bill.
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