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The Results In Iowa l FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

FiveThirtyEight
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The crew discusses the results -- so far -- from the Iowa caucuses. They also check in on the race in New Hampshire and the vote to acquit President Trump.
Website: fivethirtyeight.com/
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Comments 80
Talk Sense
Talk Sense Month ago
I can't sit through this whole thing. Do these jokers mention policy or the roll corporate money plays in this mess?
Raszkolnyikov Rogyion Romanovics
Please put subtitle on your podcasts. Thanks :)
Eric Claeyborn
Eric Claeyborn Month ago
It looks like Butt-itch should be disqualified because of the conflict of interest with the counters.
John Davis
John Davis Month ago
Romney;s a democrat and he'll lose his next election.
James Baldinger
James Baldinger Month ago
Buttigieg is a good guy. Love our Vets.
Robert Somerville
James Baldinger Explain.
Ian Furnell
Ian Furnell Month ago
'Sanders is going to have to pivot at some point' Where have I heard that before?
Matthew Timber
Matthew Timber Month ago
Nate's analysis that Buttigieg having a larger differential between final and first alignment vs Bernie is completely devoid of the nuance of the situation. There were far more people supporting non-viable centrists than people supporting nonviable progressives/anti-establishment candidates. If Warren had been a less viable candidate Bernie would have picked up even more additional voted in the final round than he did. But since Biden AND Klobuchar were both pretty non-viable in many places, their supporters would be more likely to turn to Buttigieg. Bernie picked up Yang, Gabbard, and maybe Steyer supporters (if there were any) but the total number of people supporting those three candidates was less than the number of people supporting Klobuchar. It's really meaningless that Buttigieg's final vs. first vote differential was more than Bernie's given the situation and given that Bernie received more votes than Buttigieg in both the first and final round of voting.
InvertedNegG
InvertedNegG Month ago
Since these guys make their living dissecting polls and statistics, I'm curious how annoyed they get when results are manipulated? Seems like they can't have faith in their own data sets. Tough job in this environment!
James Roux
James Roux Month ago
Are the guys on the right and left working for Pete Buttigieg or are they just completely out of touch with the world beyond the cool hip cities? I live in a paper mill town in Maine and watching this video makes me feel like I live on a different planet. In Northern New England I see more Bernie signs and shirts than any other candidate combined. Are you unaware of the physical reality in rural America or is the DNC forcing you to distort it?
Jim Pressen
Jim Pressen Month ago
Creating districts specifically to give regions of low population 'handicapped' representation vs those in regions of high population is not weird. It's pre- Warren SCOTUS revolution in voting standards. It's an 18th/19th c. idea about what representatives represent. The electoral college is designed to *prevent* an irresponsible majority from choosing the exec.
Shahnaz Shabnam
Shahnaz Shabnam Month ago
و
James Roux
James Roux Month ago
It seems like you are pushing any candidate but Bernie. It also feels like I’m stating the obvious. What am I missing?
Ann O'Halloran
Ann O'Halloran Month ago
In an Emily Littel senior stoner moment I thought they were talking about STDs not SDEs. Turns out they’re not that different.
Christopher Brown
"And some traditions are dumb!" - Nate Silver Amen brother!
Dunn123
Dunn123 Month ago
If Bernie wins, I really hope he makes peace with the establishment somehow. Maybe strike a backroom deal where Warren gets most of the power.
Robert Somerville
hauuau Poor and low-skilled workers are heavily in rural areas as well! Yes, urban areas vote Democrat, but close to the majority of the people who live there don’t vote. But what we are talking about who is at the Top of the Ticket running for President. In 2016 it was 44k in PA, 12k in WI, and 20k in MI who didn’t vote. In all of those states the major cities (Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee) had between 65,000 and 75,000 people who voted in 2012 who didn’t vote in 2016. The Majority of the people who don’t vote are lefty, you give them an actual opposition party to the right those people will come out and vote. The majority of congressional districts are in and around Urban Areas which will cause wins in the house. The Senate is however is a different story because every state gets the same amount of Senators. Which has to eventually change. In those races In a conservative State the Dems can run a Joe Manchin or a Jon Tester. You bring up Doug Jones, but Jones didn’t win just because black people came out and voted (was a big part) but because of Roy Moore’s issues 20k people wrote in “Nick Saban” or “Harambe” and That was a more of fluke than anything and Jones is more than likely to lose his seat this time around. You forgot to mention the moderate/conservative Dems in the Senate that lost because they were “Republican lite” Joe Donnelly, Claire McCaskill, and Heidi Heitkamp. Those were the only incumbent Senators on the Dem side to lose in 2018 and they were all moderate/conservative.
hauuau
hauuau Month ago
​@Robert Somerville Organized labor was important because it was an institution that voted for some distinct political interest even when there was no direct motivator. You are also not factoring in the fact that poor low-skilled workers are concentrated in urban areas. Sorry to be blunt but every such area is already voting Democratic and is not going to switch to Republicans easily. Every candidate that runs for Democratic nominee will try to make lives of these constituents better if he/she actually has a functional government to do it. Obama had such government for only four months from October 2009 to January 2010 if you actually include the problem of filibuster and of total obstruction by Republicans. But to have a functional government there is a need to appeal to suburbs and even rural areas because of structural peculiarities of the political system. And even in 2018 when Democratic party swept the House it wasn't done by the likes of the Squad who are from deep blue areas. The House was swept by small business owners, community organizers, former intelligence officers, former military, lawyers, etc. Even Doug Jones who was elected with a lot of help from turnout of African-Americans is not some sort of socialist warrior but quite moderate and even conservative. To maintain functional government there is a need to have disciplined voters who will crawl over glass but will vote. Unfortunately people who think that it's all pointless and rigged are not a dependable constituency like that and even if they do vote, they don't quite get how government actually works and what's needed to control it to enact changes.
Larry Douglas
Larry Douglas Month ago
@hauuau I've rarely seen such a meaningless load of waffle.
Robert Somerville
hauuau wasn’t specifically talking about Labor Unions or organized Labor. Who are the majority of Dem voters? Low-skilled workers, African Americans, Latino Americans, and poor people overall. So if you are taking money from those exploiting those people’s labor you then are in conflict with your own constituents. For 2010 to 2016 you are not factoring in the fact that you didn’t give those very people (poor, black, Latino, young) something or someone to vote for. Then what happens? They stayed home and the Dems got crushed. The very second that you give those people something to vote for (Obama, AOC, Bernie, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Presley, Rashida Talib) they come out to vote. The Dems have an entire Untapped voting block that they will never tap into because they love big money so much. 100 million eligible voters did not vote in 2016 (most have liberal or left ideals) these people don’t come out because they believe the system is rigged and that it is pointless. They are correct and the Dems insistence on taking from Big money donors (who also fund parts of the Republican Party as well) proves the people who think that this shit is rigged, right.
hauuau
hauuau Month ago
@Robert Somerville Sorry to inform you but organized labor is dead and it's not going to come back any soon. Yes, labor unions were essential institutional parts of the Democratic coalition before but they are no longer influential enough to carry weight in elections. They lost their influence due to transition to service economy because of offshoring and automation of manufacturing. Parties have always took money from big money donors. The question is what those donors want to achieve. Not every donor wants to achieve anti-labor policies, that's usually part of agenda of big employers of low-skilled workers aka manufacturing, retail, or food processing. Republican party before 2016 by promises of unrealistic tax cuts and by total obstruction of government basically created a coalition of corporate America, military, and social conservatives. That was their only strategy against alliance of social liberals and corporates which began during Clinton Administration and was continued during Obama Administration. Nowadays Republican coalition is disintegrating and tries to pick up remains of labor unions by promising both economic and social protectionism. Labor unions always were in tension with social and economic liberalism of the Democratic Party but they voted for protection of their incumbency due to institutional effects of unions. That's no longer there. They will vote based primarily on social conservatism. Complete collapse of labor unions as institutional arms of the Democratic Party is much more fundamental to what happened in 2010 to 2016. The only way to revive labor unions now is bold industrial policy under pretext of countering China but that is impossible to pass without gaining solid control of the government first. That's why there is a need to gut Republican coalition first and snatch as much of corporate and military parts as possible while they are dissatisfied.
Donald Smith
Donald Smith Month ago
I see one set of partisan commentators ( for the democrats) complaining about another set of partisan (for the same party,) showing their partisanship, openly. Nu?
Melissa Slaughter
Shadow Inc.
SmartPappnase
SmartPappnase Month ago
Sanders had more than double the precincts than Buttigieg where he was not viable. And despite that, he had an average of first allignment votes of 13 percent in those instances. Much higher than Buttigieg. This is likely the reason why Sanders hasn't gone up as much in the second allignment.
John Carter
John Carter Month ago
Everyone likes saying Democrats are in competent and should not run the country, but everyone also says Bernie is not a democrat. There you go problem solved.
Diamond Back
Diamond Back Month ago
Hahahahaha and they want to run the country!
A B
A B Month ago
Chris Matthews went on drunk triad Monday night about 4am on MSNBC RAILING ABOUT BERNIE SANDERS. It was disgusting. What an alcoholic rich bastard.
dbltrplx
dbltrplx Month ago
Short Peter bootyjuice pays for the app and he wins ? I CALL COMPLETE BULLSHIT ON THAT .
dbltrplx
dbltrplx Month ago
The morons in Iowa don’t even know penis bootyjuice is a homosexual.
David Leo Morley
Bernie Sanders won Iowa in all three of the categories used to measure who won and there is an enormous effort being made to hide or play down that fact by the people who hate Bernie Sanders. It's going to be Sanders of Trump. Make your choice.
May day
May day Month ago
Democrats are saying that every vote counts but they're giving partial results, so they're not counting 25% of the votes, so you voted for nothing.
PED/Donk EXPERT
PED/Donk EXPERT Month ago
You all (led by Nate Silver) are sellouts. Why don’t you mention how Mayor Pete’s campaign “donated” a huge chunk of money to this new app Iowa used to count the votes....and also screw up the election? Whether you like it or not, one of two things is going to happen: Either Bernie is going to be the Democratic nominee to run against Trump, or...MILLIONS OF AMERICANS WILL BE MARCHING ON WASHINGTON. By the way Nate, how God awfully embarrassing must it feel to have a platform ALL across the nation during every political season, yet here on your own RUvid channel...you literally barely have 200 likes and half that many dislikes? The overwhelming majority of people could give two f**ks what you and your little herd of sheep think. WE KNOW YOU’RE FOLLOWING ORDERS.
rose jacks
rose jacks Month ago
Yang 2020!
dbltrplx
dbltrplx Month ago
rose jacks slopes are for dopes
DD Burrows
DD Burrows Month ago
Kind of fun watching this from the future. DNC got caught cheating and Buttigieg seems complicit - how did he claim victory without any results?How are these guys analyzing with 75% of results skewed towards Buttigieg?
jnsdkljfn
jnsdkljfn Month ago
Bernie wins popular vote in Iowa and these people (who have been getting pretty much everything wrong in their analysis, if you’ve noticed) spin in to say this isn’t an indicator either way that Bernie is the most popular overall going forward....WTF?
Jason Maxwell
Jason Maxwell Month ago
Bernie Bros are triggered. Pete will win and it will be the second time Bernie lost Iowa. #Pete2020
Jason Maxwell
Jason Maxwell Month ago
@Robert Somerville I am a liberal. That Bernie Bro cult is some other shit.
Robert Somerville
Jason Maxwell So you’re are a fan of Pete?
Jason Maxwell
Jason Maxwell Month ago
@Avatar Kuruk HAAHAHHAH Woke, That is funny. This is how IOWA does it. Move on. You lost.
Avatar Kuruk
Avatar Kuruk Month ago
You gotta be insane to write off the Iowa results as clear and uncorrupted
DAMEIN O'FERRALL
no reason to be triggered, all of this stuff happening is totally normal. totally, totally, normal. when they lost it was the RUSSIANS, RUSSIANS, RUSSIANS, but when it benefits them, it's just honest mistakes (and lots of mistakes --> super important DM Register poll cancelled - app failure - slow results turnout - votes mistakenly given to other candidates that belong to Bernie - rounding up Pete's figures - and 4 days later, still not finished --> all caught by others who are noticing that the official result figures reported are not matching up with those on the ground) , incompetence, over and over and over again. yeah, that's complete believable. sure. why not.
blubblubwhat
blubblubwhat Month ago
ned emphasasing he couldnt get tomany of the relocations votes.. thats nonsensical because you have to consider that budagig mindet candidates didnt reach viability thats why he could get those first votes of biden and clobuchar in the first place. Warren needet to miss viability for sanders beeing able to get her votes in the second vote. so silver isnt telling that was just how the dice fell with thi arbitrary 15 trashold if it was 10 percent budagig wouldnt have been to get more second votes either ansd if it was 20 percent bernie would have ben able to get warren votes.
tgwoolshire
tgwoolshire Month ago
142 out.....what a bunch of geeks....wonder if they can tie their shoes.
Russell Rush
Russell Rush Month ago
Socialism = slavery, starvation and mass murder. Works every time.
Robert Somerville
Russell Rush Explain.
Clown World
Clown World Month ago
@DAMEIN O'FERRALL stupid bot? Smh weak socialist nazis
DAMEIN O'FERRALL
stupid bot
Abcflc
Abcflc Month ago
Can you guys explain why your math is so off? you had Biden winning 26% of the vote in 80% of your simulations (I took a screenshot in case you took it down). You also projected that Biden was going to get 12 delegates- he might get zero! Nobody expects pollsters and pundits to read the future but this is some other level of inaccuracy and bias.
Michael Murphy
Michael Murphy Month ago
This whole thing stinks!!!This was obviously an attempt,by the corrupt ass DNC to screw Bernie out of the nomination,just like they did in 2016.Call a spade a spade!!Stop acting like this was an accident.
Jason Murphy
Jason Murphy Month ago
Does Nate have a "ratfuck" factor built into his model
DAMEIN O'FERRALL
think it's safe to say yes
DAMEIN O'FERRALL
Nice phrasing 24:46 "But there's still a chance that late returns do go for Bernie..." THEY WILL AND WE ALL KNOW IT, BECAUSE THAT'S EXACTLY HOW THIS HAS BEEN RIGGED "and that all of a sudden he's (referring to BTG) robbed of his momentum." BTG has thus far ROBBED Bernie of his momentum with this fluke reporting strategy keeping BTG artificially ahead for nearly an entire week (and even before with the cancellation of the DM Register poll at BTG's bidding). When the last results come in and Bernie wins, this isn't robbing from BTG, this is winning fairly and honestly and taking back the momentum he deserved in the first place and that BTG never deserved.
fodinski1
fodinski1 Month ago
With 97% counted Bernie has caught up with Pete in SDE. Now he is the projected winner by the NYT in every metric. They shafted Bernie again by counting his biggest leads last, Pete got a 2 day victory lap by the media that he didn’t deserve. Quite frankly I think 538 model should account for the MSM and DNC bias against Bernie, we should expect it, progressives need to over win to get a fair chance. Their incompetence and unwillingness is out there for every one to see, it can’t be denied anymore
DAMEIN O'FERRALL
and nobody will mention it in MSM because the damage has been done, mission accomplished!
DAMEIN O'FERRALL
It's valid to mention that Bernie didn't convernt more voters on the second realignment and had 26% instead of the 28% that was predicted. However, Iowa is a small state and mostly white. Bernie is strongest in states that are less homogeneous, and more culturally diverse, with the exceptions of NH and Vermont, the question is can he consolidate in those areas, where the numbers will be huge for him if he does. Granted, it would have been nice to see him do it here as well.
Andre Savastano
Andre Savastano Month ago
Why is Nate wearing a hat?
Mason G.
Mason G. Month ago
Bernie is the only one who can beat Trump on stage.
Clown World
Clown World Month ago
😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣 I'd love to see miserable communism 🤣😂🤣😂🤣 good luck with that
idalberto alvarez
Funny how every time since the initial dump released, Sanders is moving up and Pete is going down. The information they are basing their opinions on is incomplete and now that 97% has been released Sanders is on the verge of overtaking Pete who has not increased but steadily decreased as the numbers continue to come out. Cant be a coincidence that Pete's best numbers were initially released and with each dump he loses ground. If Bernie wins which I fully expect considering he is at .1% away from taking the lead, it would indicate the release of the results were cherry picked and clearly benefited Pete.
idalberto alvarez
@DAMEIN O'FERRALL it benefits Bernie to have them in the race.with them splitting and Bernies consolidated base plus those who see he is out performing the polls and rest of the pack. Last time around he only got blown out a few times. That means that even in those states he lost he becomes more viable as the moderates split voters up. I believe especially in winner take all states he has the advantage if the moderates dont wise up and consolidate. Their egos will hand the nomination to Bernie. I'm using Iowa democratic party site to track the caucus results.
DAMEIN O'FERRALL
@idalberto alvarez it's possible, here's the rub, nobody is going to drop out, so where ordinarily it would be Bernie and Biden after NH, now we've got Biden, Pete, Warren, Klobuchar and even Yang and Tulsi et al. still in the mix. what this means is that nobody will win a majority and everyone will stick around for the brokered convention that Bloomberg is lining up. btw, which results tracker are you using? i was using NYT and 538 but there was a better one I was using earlier that I can't find now. it had a blue background.
idalberto alvarez
@DAMEIN O'FERRALL you have to look at the first alignment in Iowa. It is a prime example of how too many moderates becomes a liability. Even if it were just Biden and Bernie, Bloomberg would only be a spoiler for biden. He would essentially hand states to Bernie.on 2016 Clinton had the advantage because there was no challenge on super Tuesday. The moderates will all be sharing her votes this time around and Bernie should take any state her lost within 10 points. I believe he will win every state from 2016 and add possibly California Texas ny maybe nv Massachusetts at the least.
DAMEIN O'FERRALL
​@idalberto alvarez i agree with all of this. but we won't know if their strategy is going to ultimately fail or not. i think Bloomberg has been the fail safe lever all along and it is now looking more likely that he will accomplish exactly what he intended if nobody can take down Bernie, which is to push for a brokered convention (he'll have enough delegates to accomplish this) if Bernie can't win the majority. and this isn't even mentioning Super D-Bags yet. the question is, when they rob Bernie this time, will we all just take it lying down?
idalberto alvarez
@DAMEIN O'FERRALL I believe the strategic release of the data was intended to prop up Pete for funding purposes. Initially the polls were intended to prop up Biden. When that didn't work they had no choice but to release the numbers to give Pete the advantage. Biden was doing so poorly no amount of cherry picking put him in the lead. Fortunately for Bernie supporters and the country, the establishments strategy has a history of failure and the media as well as polls have no credibility. They expose themselves and embolden the revolution. They thought they could beat Bernie by watering down the process with 20+ candidates. It has backfired. Its Bernies base vs all the other candidates sharing what's left. Bad strategy.
Bob Smith
Bob Smith Month ago
Democrats are choosing who is going to lose against Trump in November
Ann O'Halloran
Ann O'Halloran Month ago
Bob Smith and the majority of voters seem to prefer the man who surely will 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Kentucky Democrat
It's either Bernie or it's Trump!
Gookbox 69
Gookbox 69 Month ago
Why doesn't any of the MSM ever bring up that Warren lied about her ethnicity?
Colonel H. Stinkmeaner
What are the odds that the Iowa Democratic Party would mess up the vote totals against Sanders?
Colonel H. Stinkmeaner
@DAMEIN O'FERRALL I think since it is contingent on the blowback of what happened in Iowa, we will need those odds first
DAMEIN O'FERRALL
what are the odds that they do it again in NH and Nevada?
Olopez82
Olopez82 Month ago
The biggest winner is NO ONE. Without having the whole count how can anybody say there was a winner? Pundents..... What do you think about giving Sanders delegets to another candidate? The cocouse only made the correction do to the chairman making it public.... Dont know if you adresed it since i lost intrest at 1 minute 5 secounds. Pundits 👆
Andrew Newton
Andrew Newton Month ago
What about the inconsistencies, particularly in Blackhawk County? I heard Deval Patrick was a real force of nature there.
Max Strong
Max Strong Month ago
Agreed.
Chewbacca Cat
Chewbacca Cat Month ago
Nate's Liver
Brandon Scott
Brandon Scott Month ago
Wow I can’t wait to watch when y’all have to come out here and make a new Video where Bernie won every single metric 😂 you talked around Bernie being the front runner so much, but now it is absolutely undeniable!!! The field is not wide at all! The only one who can compete is Bloomberg.
Brandon Scott
Brandon Scott Month ago
Agreed. All I’m saying is he has the money!
Lalli Vasich
Lalli Vasich Month ago
We’re going to smash Bloomberg. Without Biden, there’s no one left to stop Senator Sanders!
12from121
12from121 Month ago
Here comes Bernie!!! lol Nate is going to be upset the gap is now 0.1%
Derek Smidl
Derek Smidl Month ago
The right to vote needs to be represented. Criminal justice reform and give former convicts the right back is also a necessary change
Derek Smidl
Derek Smidl Month ago
Electoral college AND the Iowa caucuses must be dismantled completely. Neither system belongs in a democracy anyway
Max Strong
Max Strong Month ago
@Neightrix Prime These people are children.
Max Strong
Max Strong Month ago
We are not a Democracy, but you're a liberal.
Neightrix Prime
Neightrix Prime Month ago
1. Mob rule is bad. 2. The DNC primary isn't even a legal process, so they can actually cheat and lie as much as they want. They hate democracy, so you're already supporting the wrong people.
AndreTreeCantSeeMe
You live in a Constitutional Republic, not a democracy
pascal jacob
pascal jacob Month ago
Now that 93% reporting, Sanders is 3 delegates behind on 447 to Buttigieg's 550, from being over 40 behind when 70% were reporting. Still over 50 precincts unknown. If Sanders has won this, it's gonna look like a complete attempt at fixing by the DNC who have released results in a way that's given Buttigieg 3 days of claiming victory.
Martin Rupert
Martin Rupert Month ago
Bernie Is now (97%) 3 Delegates away from Pete and ahead by 2k votes in Final Alignment. I also live in Iowa and I hate the Caucus system Bernie obviously got more votes I want Ranked Choice dangit...
hauuau
hauuau Month ago
@Antonio Tomas Garcia Because for the party it's important to have nominee who have broad geographic support to actually help in swing races in the House and in state legislatures. There were no alternative metrics before this cycle. SDE was always the only metric published before. Blame Sanders and his supporters for bullying both the DNC and state parties into complicating things by releasing three metrics instead of one.
Antonio Tomas Garcia
@hauuau Ok. But if the electoral college system in the general awards the delegates statewide, why should the caucus be different? Candidates have to show their strength in the same election method as the general I think. Now, I don't think this should be to extreme of the Republican winner-takes-all. But it would be simpler, cleaner and more importantly, with results that everyone can accept, without all these alternative metrics muddying the image of how it actually went for each candidate.
hauuau
hauuau Month ago
@Antonio Tomas Garcia Current system has advantage in measuring and awarding slight bonus in rural or suburban counties. That matters to measure general electability and possible effect from candidate on down-ballot races. But caucuses are indeed very messy. They always are and always will be messy but it's still a very nice tradition.
Antonio Tomas Garcia
@Paul Turnbloom It'd still be more representative than the current (I refuse to call it a system) mess.
Paul Turnbloom
Paul Turnbloom Month ago
Pretty sure ranked choice would have favored Buttigieg most
pascal jacob
pascal jacob Month ago
The big difference with the electoral college is that if this were a straight primary and not a caucus, the campaigns would not have done much different. Whereas, if the general was a straight vote and not the electoral college, Trump wouldn't have spent so much time in the swing States and would instead have done more work in the major cities, where a small percentage gain would turn into a lot of votes. It would be a completely different contest.
Rojas-messilia
Rojas-messilia Month ago
Sanders has only misinformation preventing him from being everyone's president. It is hard to see how this channel isn't a psyops agent (there is long precedent to this claim with this team, though I'm not saying it's a deliberate thing, more of a transferred establishment cooties thing - the campaign against the American people is very well executed generally. See their take on Chelsea Manning's torture.).
Charles Loucks
Charles Loucks Month ago
The DNC is probing to see how far they can go in kneecapping Bernie Sanders. The events that have transpired are unprecedented and bazaar: 1) The Des Monies Register spiked their pre-caucus poll that was later revealed to have shown Sanders winning the popular vote and Biden in danger of not being viable. 2) Two whole days after the caucus and still no vote totals! 3) Late Wednesday, the official count is revised with a "minor" adjustment; turns out the 'minor' adjustment was due to Sanders votes somehow going to Deval Patrick and Tom Steyer. How did this happen? We are told the number one priority is 'integrity' and yet we see the DNC (who have taken over the counting from the IDP) with their hand in the cookie jar rigging the vote against their number one existential threat--Sanders who they have been none too reserved in assuring the Establishment will never win the Democratic Nomination. 4) Why the 62% vote total that stuck around for about a day? This allowed Buttigieg to make a semi-plausible claim to having won the caucus. The problem here is that the 62% of votes could have been cherry picked to favor the Never-Bernie vote. I reject the claim that it is incompetence that is the cause of this outcome!
DAMEIN O'FERRALL
agree
Matt
Matt Month ago
yo i wonder what brand of laptop they're all using?
Eric Claeyborn
Eric Claeyborn Month ago
They're using the Flintstone brand... it uses 2,000 cockroaches to run each one.
Bryan Eller
Bryan Eller Month ago
They're macbooks
Bluenami
Bluenami Month ago
"Think different" ;)
Periculum Esse
Periculum Esse Month ago
Micah Cohen - Trump was innocent. The impeachment was not held. Your assumption that impeachment no longer works is hysteria. He did nothing wrong. He was innocent. The entire Democratic party effort, was strange, partisan politics.
lorin crandall
lorin crandall Month ago
So based on your coverage can we assume that ABC News supported Mayo Pete?
Robert Corona
Robert Corona Month ago
It’s sad
Robert Corona
Robert Corona Month ago
Why Are you guys there?DNC cheated
Jane Smith
Jane Smith Month ago
They are assisting in the DNC electoral fraud.
Sam
Sam Month ago
UPDATE: 96% Reporting. Sanders leads by 0.90% in popular vote. Buttigieg leads by 0.77% in SDEs. Those numbers are unlikely to flip with so few votes left.
Robert Corona
Robert Corona Month ago
No credibility for the Democratic Party it’s over
Robert Corona
Robert Corona Month ago
DNC IS DOOMED
Saul Fischauer
Saul Fischauer Month ago
@ 5:08 Nate Silver "We talked to um, we had a meeting with the Democratic National Committee (DNC), CAN I SAY THAT?"
Ladiarch
Ladiarch Month ago
It amazes me how a party who seems to be so up in arms about a Russian company who took out a few Facebook ads That might have influenced voters to vote for trump, What turn around and not have a problem with candidates paying for an app to be created that would be counting their votes.🤔 Then that app that got created in 2 months time was used for the primaries are completely failed and no one is out in the streets protesting and they seem to be fine with these f**** up results....
Ladiarch
Ladiarch Month ago
@Maje Brennan Yet I am commenting on your opinion and we don't know each other. We can agree to disagree you miss my point and it doesn't matter anyway trump's going to win in 2020.🇺🇸🇺🇸🙏🙏
Maje Brennan
Maje Brennan Month ago
@Ladiarch posting a link doesn't tell me anything about the veracity of the person in the video or weather or not his opinions are correct.
Ladiarch
Ladiarch Month ago
ruvid.net/video/video-h2RdXO82BcY.html
Maje Brennan
Maje Brennan Month ago
@Ladiarch One actually has nothing to do with the other. The company that made the app is not Russian. The company that made Buttigieg's program was not the same company that made the app.
hauuau
hauuau Month ago
@Ladiarch The difference between this company and Cambridge Analytica or Internet Research Agency is that as far as we know this company specializes in regular custom software while those two specialize in psychological warfare, black propaganda, and such nefarious things over social media. That's just ethically or legally not the same. We are not sure if there was explicit coordination between Russians and Trump campaign because the investigation was obstructed as described in the Mueller Report. Read it. It's important.
Sam
Sam Month ago
96% reporting now. Bernie did well in the last 4% to come in, but not by enough to change anything. Don't have the math yet though.
Rojas-messilia
Rojas-messilia Month ago
Discrepancies are the difference. Math doesn't mean crap if the Iowa Dem leaderhsip have a sweetheart deal to fall on their sword and end the caucus (if the Buttigieg-Clinton app from Shadow Inc can't execute the steal singlehandedly).
Doug Christopher
So our choices are between a socialist, gay, liar or thief. 🤪 Trump 2020 landslide 😀
It's All Fun and Games
If your model had Biden at a greater than 1% chance, it's time to throw out your model.
ATMOSK1234
ATMOSK1234 Month ago
Hell get all the super delegates
Onalos
Onalos Month ago
You guys sure are trying hard to avoid discussing how well Bernie's odds are in every one of those states.
Chandler
Chandler Month ago
This is giving me nostalgia for linkin logs
Chandler
Chandler Month ago
@Isa Toys are so political these days
Isa
Isa Month ago
Aren't they Lincoln Logs?
lorin crandall
lorin crandall Month ago
What is Biden hiding behind those aviators?
A
A Month ago
Bernie 2020 for the future of the planet and America
Donald Smith
Donald Smith Month ago
Bernie the constipated commie!
jnsdkljfn
jnsdkljfn Month ago
Pyongyang simply look at the candidate who has the most enthusiastic support, that is a big indicator that goes completely ignored by these bean counters. They ignored that factor in the republican primary and have been getting things wrong more and more since
pyongyang
pyongyang Month ago
I think the concerns about Bernie not being able to consolidate support from the rest of the Democratic voter base are real and worrying, I dislike Biden as much as any other 18-35 voter but if he can rebuild the voter base that won Obama the presidentry, or even the 2016 Clinton voter base, which was weaker but still electable, then maybe a more moderate candiate like Biden who can get Trump out and address the concerns of voters who swung to Trump populism would be better as a stopgap measure then four more years of Trump and a potentional fatal blow to the progressive elements in the Democratic party if Bernie were to loose the General.
Derek Smidl
Derek Smidl Month ago
🤗
lorin crandall
lorin crandall Month ago
Yo, y'alls Bloomborg little face emoji on the grey background looks pretty creepy. On your website.
lorin crandall
lorin crandall Month ago
How much did each candidate spend in Iowa? How much per vote and per SDE?
Sam
Sam Month ago
Buttigieg went all in in Iowa and New Hampshire. He and Biden were alone in Iowa for a week. He capitalized, Biden didn't. This will help Buttigieg take some of Biden's votes in New Hampshire, but still well behind Bernie. When you go to SC with Biden maybe 4th twice, Buttigieg will crater given his record on race and Biden won't recover that much. Bernie and Warren will do well there and have a good shot at winning that race. We won't see numbers to indicate that until after New Hampshire though.
Sam
Sam Month ago
92% reporting now. Bernie leads by 0.6% in popular vote, Pete leads by 0.9% in SDEs. NYTimes estimates Pete leading in actual delegates at the end by about 1 delegate +/- 1. While traditional, SDEs are BS, as are current delegate estimates. The 2012 GOP Iowa Caucus was close between Romney and Santorum. After it went through the County and State Conventions, Ron Paul got most of the delegates. There is no reason to count delegates until Super Tuesday. That's when the numbers get big enough to overcome the margin of error between the vote and the actual delegate assignments. Until then, announce winners and margins. This was essentially a tie. If you need a winner, it's Bernie, but realistically, it's a tie. EDIT: With 96% in, Bernie's numbers are SLIGHTLY better, but not enough to change the narrative.
Onalos
Onalos Month ago
BERNIE WON THE POPULAR VOTE
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