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FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Democratic primary, according to the early states

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The crew previews the official FiveThirtyEight polling averages for the 2020 Democratic primary and looks back at the 2017 article “14 Versions Of Trump’s Presidency, From MAGA To Impeachment.”
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#FiveThirtyEight #PoliticsPodcast

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Dec 10, 2019

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Comments 71
Fikret Kayhan
Fikret Kayhan Month ago
Biden considers having republican as running mate (vp). Mental!!!
Eric Tan Swee Beng
You guys apparently ignored the elephant in the room, which is Andrew Yang. Where is he in your review of candidates of color? America is not just Black and White. Since we exist, we should have coverage not because it is convienent as your coverage suggests.
Lola Waters
Lola Waters Month ago
keep telling all the lies you want about the demorat's Iowa support, but the truth is with the people not polls and not made up stats that mean nothing to us in Iowa
Aundrae Blackwell
Wow this podcast analysis isn't very good.
Ellery Prescott
Ellery Prescott Month ago
8 minutes in and not a single mention of Bernie. Hacks for the establishment. 👎🏽
fodinski1
fodinski1 Month ago
“Even with his numbers, Is talking less about Bernie justified because his sealing is higher?” WHATT???? THATS YOUR OPINION MAN! That is the BIAS we’re calling out. JESUS, LEARN THIS LESSON ALREADY!!!!! Read the numbers, i don’t care what you think, it’s probably wrong. Nate finally got this, the rest not yet.
S_ Att
S_ Att Month ago
NO YANG???? #YANG2020 🇺🇸
Harold Cho
Harold Cho Month ago
no yang? im OUT
Kestell Laurie
Kestell Laurie 2 months ago
Yang is the one to watch. The septuagenarians will not beat Trump.
pars BHDRI
pars BHDRI 2 months ago
Kestell Laurie when Bernie did the same thing but even harder in 2016 against Clinton and they rigged it against him he got 45% of the vote and nearly beat her. Ur candidate is barely 6th right now.
pars BHDRI
pars BHDRI 2 months ago
Yang polls at an average of 3%. Even if we account for the polls being “rigged” against him and just give 10% just for shits and also give all of tulsis votes he would still be less than Biden Sanders Warren and in some polls even Mayor Pete. So please stop. Yang is barely hanging on in a primary let alone win the general.
Casey White
Casey White 2 months ago
I can never wait to watch these before I listen in the evening :(
Filchmeister
Filchmeister 2 months ago
Is there a way to get these videos approved by RUvid for auto-generated closed captioning? My father is deaf but a big 538 fan and he really wants to listen to these! Thank you for uploading. Huge fan of the pod.
Joe OWS
Joe OWS 2 months ago
Ever wonder why you guys have only fifteen k subscribers? Because you ALL are consistently WRONG about everything you cover... prove me wrong, bet ya can't!....
Jordon Perez
Jordon Perez 2 months ago
I love how they're willing to present Biden as a friend of the working man without any critical comment...also no mention of how well Bernie polls in the Latino community..the "2nd place isn't a big deal" comment had me dying. Nate silver is the epitome of using data in a faux-objective way to further a specific agenda. Go check out his 2016 reporting if you still think he has any credibility 😂
Antonio Tomas Garcia
These people understand elections as a horse-race thing, with zero insight into how things really work. They look at the numbers but don't understand what's behind them. And their gigantic pro-elite bias shows when they discuss stuff like Biden's supposed 'union friend' status. Or when they discuss the Bernie Blackout as something that arises from a supposed popular support ceiling, rather than corporate media bias.
jarjon76
jarjon76 2 months ago
Nate Silver's entire career is bashing Bernie.
A F
A F 2 months ago
Clare sounds and looks like donna from the 70s show
Joe Joe
Joe Joe 2 months ago
It's really disgusting to see Nate twist and turn trying to justify his unethical coverage.
Joe Blow
Joe Blow 2 months ago
Nothing justifies you corporate shills. It hurts Low IQ Nate so much to say Bernie :) Get used to it fatboy & get ready to pay some of that corporate money in taxes . LOL. Bernie's comin' for you Nate .
Joe Blow
Joe Blow 2 months ago
Nate &the Bimbo are very low IQ individuals.
Kirmie44
Kirmie44 2 months ago
What about Andrew Yang?
vladthecon
vladthecon 2 months ago
to bad they didn't mention the fisa court.
Gwolf
Gwolf 2 months ago
Chapo trap house > you guys
Gwolf
Gwolf Month ago
@A F "White Marxists" Words have meaning guy. What do that even mean?
A F
A F Month ago
@Gwolf they are the stereotype of middle class white marxists
Gwolf
Gwolf 2 months ago
@continuousminer Elitist in what fucking way? lol Words having meaning man.
continuousminer
continuousminer 2 months ago
Gwolf they’re all elitist retards who have never worked a real job in their entire lives but think they know the American working class
Ward Rietz
Ward Rietz 2 months ago
it would be nice to see more discussion about states outside of the first four. There have to be others that matter, and many haven't had new polls in a while. Like to see how Democratic strong holds are thinking, as well as swing states.
Nate M
Nate M 2 months ago
Can a statistician explain to me how sample sizes are decided? I have never been polled, why?
rhythmandacoustics
rhythmandacoustics 2 months ago
Suppose to be a random sample , the bigger the size the better, no max, only limited by time and money.
EricTheYounger
EricTheYounger 2 months ago
I think someone did a calculation once that you have a higher chance of hitting the jackpot on a scratch ticket than getting polled.
Ian James Chapman
Ian James Chapman 2 months ago
Bernie 2020
Filchmeister
Filchmeister 2 months ago
Super hans no more crack!
Jeff J
Jeff J 2 months ago
Another great episode. Alas, Micah's disdain for the sitting President continues to bias his predictions as well as his interpretations of recent events. It is a shame, because on a great many issues he is a tremendously insightful and perceptive analyst. He just needs to step back from his personal political beliefs. It is one area that repeatedly makes him sound like a partisan rather than a statistician. To be clear, no analyst is always right and it is difficult to overcome deeply held personal beliefs. But he hung his hat on "Trump will obviously be impeached and removed" early in the process and continues to double down by, for example, making false equivalences with dictatorships (despite Presidents of all political stripes engaging in comparable, or arguably worse, actions for generations). Last thing we need is for 538 to be yet another patently obvious party political news service.
c c
c c 2 months ago
I clicked and subscribed so I could see nate pointing at a screen
c c
c c 2 months ago
Im definately voting trump buy i wouldnt be sad if bernie or yang went on to win.
c c
c c 2 months ago
@Javier Garcia Yeah I hope he does well too. But isn't the superdelegate system still used by the DNC? I can't see the party elites letting bernie have the nomination.
Javier Garcia
Javier Garcia 2 months ago
​@c c I don't think your take is that uncommon. While I do not agree with your opinion of voting Trump for various reasons, I understand where you're probably coming from. Truth be told, this two-party system causes so many problems. That's the same reason why I like Sanders. Because he is consistent with his values and I know that he will fight for justice and genuinely try to improve the country.
c c
c c 2 months ago
@SirSX3 they are all outsiders and economic populists. In 2007 bernie said on CNN that high immigration destroys wages for the working class. They are also the only candidates that are authentic and not just robots reading offal a script.
SirSX3
SirSX3 2 months ago
But Trump, Sanders, and Yang are so different from each other. How do you agree with them but not others?
c c
c c 2 months ago
@Dark Matter how?
Eye Of Horus
Eye Of Horus 2 months ago
What stands out to him is that buttigieg is moving up in the polls, lol not that buttigieg has 0 support from the black community so he cant win the vote in the end.
Joe Joe
Joe Joe 2 months ago
Silver stopped looking at actual numbers years ago. Now he puts together inaccurate models to say he's more than a pundit, but that's all he is.
Nate M
Nate M 2 months ago
Lol right. "I wonder how a young white moderate is doing well in Iowa?" Let's face it, he isn't even following the gay agenda properly (remember when he was eating Chick-Fil-A before they finally dropped their bigoted donations?)
JPM12
JPM12 2 months ago
What is the name of the song you guys use for your opening?
Theo N
Theo N 2 months ago
+1 for revisiting the 17 forecasts and uncertainty article
Joshiitake
Joshiitake 2 months ago
Please include the cold open audio! It's always a delight.
Slow Boat Sailing
Slow Boat Sailing 2 months ago
What a nice studio!
Joe Hoffmann
Joe Hoffmann 2 months ago
Hey! I was hoping to "click and subscribe so I could see Nate pointing at a screen"... But that part got edited out of the video, but weirdly left in the podcast...
Johnny Black
Johnny Black 2 months ago
I laugh listening to you guys about black voters. Biden has the baby boomers that are "content" in their white supremacy spot and just want Trump out. Young black voters will never vote for him. Sanders has already shot himself in the foot with black voters and will lose out. Everyone else will also lose out to Trump unless they give FBA tangibles. There is a debt owed and it will be payed in full! No tangibles, no vote!
Johnny Black
Johnny Black 2 months ago
@jarjon76 What the f... does that mean!? What data?!?
jarjon76
jarjon76 2 months ago
@Johnny Black Data doesn't care about your feels, Nate Jr.
Kion Kion
Kion Kion 2 months ago
@Duran Sayed Baha I stand corrected
Duran Sayed Baha
Duran Sayed Baha 2 months ago
Kion Kion I think you misread my comment. Or I probably worded it poorly. I was making the claim that there’s no reason that sanders would depress youth voter turnout (compared to recent elections) . That’s like a given minimum. I happen to believe he’ll Expand that turnout significantly. And no way in Hell im a boomer lol
Kion Kion
Kion Kion 2 months ago
You are half correct, however what you are not taking into account young black voters like you said like myself we do not in a monolith, we are not flash cards, or surveys on family feud. The black vote is more nuanced than that older blacks who are voting are leaning towards biden, young black people who are voting are leaning towards Sanders, and the some who are not voting are just not going to vote it's just that simple. Young African American support Progressive policies these are facts at the end of the day Young African Americans are smarter than what you give us credit for we will support the candidate who has the best policies every thing else is bullshit... OK BOOMER.
SSanf
SSanf 2 months ago
Why Biden??
Adam Norton
Adam Norton 2 months ago
Trump soup = The contents of a music festival port-a-potty at around 2PM Sunday: Ruined high-end gadgets, hastily discarded narcotics, and unknown quantities of fumbled cash; floating in assorted organic what-have-you. An opportunity for the vile that the rest of us would rather stay up wind of.
vladthecon
vladthecon 2 months ago
i thought that was the what they found in hunter bidens car.
Matthew Swenson
Matthew Swenson 2 months ago
Trump had a pretty good acceptance speech. There were literally days where I thought maybe he might become someone I could could vote for in 2020.
Matthew Swenson
Matthew Swenson 2 months ago
Also worth noting about Nevada is that it's the most Black state west of Texas and Oklahoma. The early states as a whole are more Black than the country as a whole, but the first two are very much not.
John Mansor
John Mansor 2 months ago
Love those pipe delimited text files!!
mr lel
mr lel 2 months ago
my favorite part of that is that the lines aren't wrapped in the right places
rwsmth
rwsmth 2 months ago
SC a majority Black state is worth 1/5th Iowa a majority white state? Man that sounds familiar for some reason 🤔 lol
Dark Matter
Dark Matter 2 months ago
Being first in a popularity race has considerable advantages.
Matthew Swenson
Matthew Swenson 2 months ago
Should be at least 3/5ths, right? More seriously, Iowa has 41 delegates attached to its caucus, South Carolina has 54 attached to its primary, because there are about 25% more Democrats there. Iowa may have an outsized effect because it gets more coverage as the first one to vote. I'd really like to see small states take turns.
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